Monday February 18, 2008: The Omaha Field Club
All you wanted to know about what Mr. Buffett said......and a little more.
Below are the questions asked by the UCD MBA group and an approximation of the answers given by Mr. Buffett. If something is in quotation marks, then I felt confident that I transcribed Mr. Buffett’s words within the realm of reality.
Below are the questions asked by the UCD MBA group and an approximation of the answers given by Mr. Buffett. If something is in quotation marks, then I felt confident that I transcribed Mr. Buffett’s words within the realm of reality.
Unless there are direct quotes, my words are an attempt to paraphrase Mr. Buffett’s remarks; any misinterpretations are entirely accidental and are mine. Parentheses surround my own observations or comments. This is a lot of material. We had a lot to absorb. Enjoy! (Photo credits- Thanks Zack)
Q: What are MBA schools lacking and how, as a student or a school, can we raise the bar?
“Get very comfortable with the language of accounting”
“Learn how to communicate both verbally and in writing very well”
(Buffett did a Carnegie course in public speaking to overcome his ‘knees knocking’ when he got up in front of a group. I think the courses worked- he’s a consummate public speaker and appears to enjoy communicating with a crowd.)
Verbal and written communication subjects aren’t as esoteric and specialized for someone with a PHD to teach, but these subjects will be incredibly important for you in life.
“A well-written letter can change your life.” (Mr. Buffett has sometimes invested in or acquired companies based on what he considered well-written, succinct and sometimes moving letters.)
Q: You said a recession could be an opportunity. Assuming we are in a recession, do you see any difference in the opportunities presented by this recession and past recessions?
Look to the long term and don’t fixate on the day to day market gyrations. The U.S. economy will be fine. We’ve gone through major depressions, major world wars, including one where we thought we were losing for a while, and certainly there is a little correction happening right now, but if you look at the overall strength of the US economy, the GDP and the base we have to keep growing from, the long term is still looking very good.
For example, “Sees Candy (owned by Berkshire Hathaway) actually loses money 8 months out of the year, but then, Christmas always comes around eventually- we make $70 million of our $80 million annual revenue in the three weeks before Christmas. We say that the company song is, ‘What a friend we have in Jesus.’ And we continue to raise the price every year, and people still pay it. It’s not like you want to come home to your wife or sweetheart-hopefully they’re the same person-and say, honey, I went mid-market with a box of Russell Stover. You might get slapped.”
“People will continue to pay the higher price to get the box of Sees Candy. The important thing is to have a double comparative advantage (like the strong brand identity of See’s and a lack of acceptable substitutes) and don’t look at the month to month changes.”
“The current market challenges are financially caused. A lot of stupid things happened” in the financial markets.
“Over time the economy’s going to be fine.” Keep your eyes on life-timer term investments.
Q: Let’s pretend it’s Nov 5, 2008 and the new president-elect calls you the morning after the election. He or she asks you to recommend policies for their new administration. What do you recommend to the president-elect?
“I was asked something similar by Charlie Rose during the John Kerry campaign years. He asked me what if you got asked to be the Fed Chairman. I said, ‘Well, A, it’s not likely to happen and B, I’d say ‘No, you’d better call Jimmy Buffett.’”
“Unfortunately, whether it’s Republicans or Democrats, things won’t change very much.”
(Mr. Buffett then proceeded to tell us the story of a little salary and taxation survey he did in the 15-person Berkshire Hathaway office. Salaries ranged from $50,000 to multiple millions. The average % tax paid by his colleagues was 30%. Mr. Buffett, the highest-paid individual in the office, paid a little more than half that, at 17%. He thought that was illogical, unfair and an indictment of our society, government and tax system. He went on to describe the incredible (and growing) income and tax rate gap between the top 1% of American society and the bottom 20% and the middle 40%. He also pointed out that it’s unfortunate that so many of the people that are negatively affected by this disparity a) don’t know about it and b) wouldn’t know what to do about it and c) didn’t have the money to hire lobbyists to advocate for them even if they did know about it. On the other hand, those that enjoy these tax breaks are clued in, do know what to do about it and have plenty of money (ironically) to hire lobbyists to keep it that way. Below are some of his feelings on the topic.)
“For my $46 million income, my tax rate was 17%. No one had a lower tax rate than me, and my tax rate was slightly half of the average of the whole office! My cleaning lady is taxed more for cleaning the bathroom than I am for being in the boardroom.”
“Our tax system is way out of whack- and it’s been increasingly skewed towards the super-rich.”
“The super-rich are being favored- it’s what I would tell that person if they call me on November 5th- which is why they won’t call me.”
Q: Many have proposed plans for universal health care, whether through a single-payer system or expanded private coverage subsidized by employers and government. Can you tell us which if any plan you prefer and why?
“With a GDP of $45,000 per person (in the United States), if someone can’t get basic health care, it’s an indictment of society.”
(Mr. Buffett then went on to tell us a little story about what he calls the “ovarian lottery”)
Look at health are in this framework, it’s logical and reasonable. Imagine it’s 24 hours before you’re born and a genie visits you and says that you get to design what you think would be the perfect society, the laws, the policies and the regulations that you would most want to live with. Then the Genie tells you the catch- because all genie stories have a catch- and that before you are born you first have to pick your lottery ticket out of a barrel.
And you don’t know if that lottery ticket will say Male or Female, Black or White, or US or Bangladesh. Because you don’t know what you’re going to pick when you reach your hand into that barrel, you’ll probably really think about it when you create that perfect society..and you’ll want to have one that’ll create a lot of prosperity- a meritocracy- and one that is also full of the right kinds of opportunities for everyone so that you get the right people into the right jobs. You want the right people to fall into the best, the right, the most efficient places. Like you want Jack Welch running GE and you want Mike Tyson fighting in the heavyweight ring. Switch those two around and it doesn’t really work. Then once you have that figured out and working well, then you need a society, a just society, that helps out the people who didn’t necessarily draw the best tickets.
“You want a prosperous and then a just society. Part of a just society is that you want freedom from fear.” People are fearful of losing their job, not having enough to eat, not being able to make rent. “Freedom from fear also means health care- a lot of people are afraid of getting a horrible disease that cleans them out. “
“Think about healthcare in that framework.”
Q: Lee Iacocca says that he believes US business and political leaders are failing because, “Instead of looking for real solutions [to America’s problems of national security, entitlements, health care, energy, etc.] they seem to be looking out for number one.” Do you share Iacocca’s views and if so what can be done to re-align these leaders’ incentives to the national interest?
“What really makes board members behave is publicity.”
“CEO’s are behaving better now than they were 10 years ago” and they are more worried about bad deeds getting exposed in the constant media circus that we currently have. However, “You shouldn’t expect their behavior to change much in the future- it’ll be like it has been in the past.” People in power often are tempted to abuse it and I won’t just single out CEO’s. Politicians and many others fall into this trap as well.
Q: You did not support President Bush’s proposal for personal retirement investment accounts. By most accounts, Social Security will not be able to meet its obligations in the coming decades. What do you think is the best solution to this issue?
“Social security will meet its obligations.” The number of workers is increasing and the GDP per person is growing. “The percent of GDP is 0.75 percentage points greater than what is now needed and the pie is constantly expanding. You can increase a percentage of the pie that goes to the elderly while you have more still going to other people. I think you should change the age level though. I mean, I still happily cash my Social Security checks but the age should be lowered.”
“Medicare is a much bigger problem; we do need some level of nationalized health care.”
Q: In line with your previous advice to pick people on whom you go long or go short, which leaders today would you identify for going long or shorting?
“Barak Obama has clearly created a movement. He has the ability to lead like Franklin D. Roosevelt. But I support both Barak and Hillary; I told both of them I’d support them if they ran…..and so I became a political bigamist.”
“People like that (FDR) come along and can take the lead and take people somewhere that the people don’t know where they’re going.” That quality in business you see often too.
“You want to believe. You want to vote for someone that you can believe in, something that’s bigger than yourself.”
Q: What dream have you not accomplished?
“Do you happen to know Sophia Loren?” (We all laughed for a good minute here)
“You do want your dream to be out there a ways but you don’t want it to be too out there.”
“Someone once said, ‘Success isn’t getting what you want, it's wanting what you get.’ There’s something to that. An example of a real test of “what you want” and to focus your goals and time is something an 80-year old neighbor told me. She’s a Polish Jew and lives in Omaha and was sent to one of the worst concentration camps during World War II. She was probably a young lady, in her early teens. Her family and friends were split up and formed into lines- some were killed, some survived. She survived that experience. Now, in her 80’s she says that she’s very slow to make friends and as a test, she advises to ask yourself of any potential friend, “Would they hide you?” That is her test of loyalty and she only makes friends with people who pass the test.
“The point is to engineer backwards from where you want to be and do what you must to get there. It’s like a country song, you should sing it backwards so you get your home back, your car back, your dog back……….”
Q: Aside from winning the “ovarian lottery” as you’ve called it, what was the most important year in your life and why?
“When I proposed to my wife.” It also happens that that year was when I was taking the Carnegie public speaking course. They would give pencils every week to the
person who had improved the most and the week that I proposed, they asked me, ‘Did she say yes?” And that was the week I got the pencil.
Miscellaneous Questions and some other thoughts and asides from Mr. Buffett:
Municipal insurance:
“Municipal insurance might be more risky in the future than it’s been in the past.” If municipal bonds get insured, then often cities will default more frequently just because they are insured. “Be very careful using historical information in business”, like looking at historical default rates on municipal bonds. The default rate is very different, for a reason, during a period when a project or a city is insured vs. when it’s not.
Estate Tax:
“You’d have to go to a funeral a month for 17 years before you encountered someone who was affected by the estate tax- that’s only about 12,000 people in the entire United States.”
“If you believe in equal opportunity you can’t believe in dynastic wealth.”
“Unfortunately, the folks who want to abolish the estate tax have the lobbyists. My cleaning lady doesn’t have lobbyists.”
Derivatives:
“Derivatives are dangerous because they can be so mispriced. You have interconnectedness in financial markets like you’ve never had before. Trillions are held by people which, if they get a trigger, they’d all behave the same way.” It’s a crowded trade with out people knowing it’s crowded.
“It’s like the portfolio insurance doomsday machine on October 19, 1987- failure should’ve been predicted. It was less than 1% of the market but took 23% off the market and the market was almost closed. It’s now the electronic herd all over the world, waiting to act on a stimulus and it’s accentuated by derivatives.”
Additionally, total return swaps “are financial weapons of mass destruction” because they create chaos in the markets. “It’s amazing the trouble people can get into with leverage.”
The Gift to the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation:
“It was an absolute no brainer for me. They’ll keep running it decades after I’m dead.” “There are plenty of people who want to put their name on a building for $10 million and that’s great but it doesn’t do anything for me.”
Give your philanthropic dollars to people that will focus on big projects that wouldn’t normally be accomplished without funding of that size. Work on the big, creative and innovate projects that aren’t being addressed adequately by the government, by the scientific community or by society in general. Try not to sprinkle your donation around to a lot of little projects- it’ll sometimes just feel like it disappears without making an impact and, little piecemeal dollars are usually easier to get.
“I think they’ll do a great job.”
Picking Winning Investments:
“I value a stock or business before I know what its price is.” It takes away an anchoring bias. “I also do it with horse racing- I study the horse first and figure out who the winners are likely to be and then I look at the odds.”
“If you read enough you’ll find things.” Read annual reports and anything you can get your hands on to find values. “You have to find them yourself- no one’s going to show you. You have to keep reading.”
Keep your focus small. The larger your portfolio, the more like the market you’ll look- you won’t pick winners, you’ll mimic the S&P. “Markets are generally efficient- I don’t have to have an opinion on 4,000 companies, I only have to find one that’s mispriced.”
China:
(Mr. Buffett has made some profitable buys and sells of Chinese petroleum companies that were government owned and it seems is keeping a close eye on the undervalued companies there as well as watching for obvious lemons, of which there seem to be many.) He says that China is the classic sleeping giant, with a wealth of resources but a potential wealth and a population that have been extremely underleveraged. He says, “China is now unleashing the potential of the people and it’s extraordinary and it’ll keep going. Once you’ve tasted it, huge things will happen in China. I was there 3 months ago and it was astounding. All that potential came out. But not that I think Chinese A shares are a good buy, they sell at very fancy prices.”
Misc.
Dealing with challenging problems:
“I have three boxes on my desk: ‘In’, ‘Out’ and ‘Too Hard.’ It’s the “Too Hard” ones I try to get help on.”